Yemen, continued

Last month, I attempted to unpack the massive poverty in Yemen. Lacking in resources and infrastructure, and floundering amid corruption, the country has its fair share of issues.

Nevertheless, the city of Sana'a is one of the fastest growing in the world (at 7 percent annually). But here's the catch: new numbers reveal that by 2017, the country will run out of economically viable water supplies and will stop profiting from oil.

John Stuart Mill wrote that eventually, all growth will end and progress will level. To him, this would be the ultimate sign that equality and prosperity had been reached. But Yemen does not fit this model, for he also wrote that "in the backward countries of the world … increased production is still an important object." (1)

Yemen is an unusual case within Mill's models. Most countries he examined were experiencing unprecedented growth, with no clear stopping point in sight. In effect, Yemen has an expiration date for its progress. With an economy based almost entirely on oil (90 percent of exports, 75 percent of government revenue), and an oil supply that is on the verge of disappearing, Yemen's "stationary state" is more than just a political construct. And what happens when Yemen reaches the point of no development in one of the world's most tumultuous regions? "For the safety of national independence it is essential that a country not fall much behind its neighbours," Mill wrote. Is Yemen doomed politically too, then?

Additionally, the breaking point make come sooner than expected. "Yemen’s crunch point will come long before the oil wells finally run dry," a local newspaper wrote. "The government currently needs to cover rising domestic consumption, as well as a fixed allocation to oil companies to cover their initial and ongoing investment costs. As production levels drop towards consumption levels, the share of crude oil sales available to support the national budget is shrinking. … High global prices place a unique strain on the national budget."

Mill advocated for international cooperation — and Yemen, though strong in pride, has expressed a need for foreign aid. This has long been the UN's solution, but is this only delaying the inevitable? Is foreign aid a permanent solution, or just a band-aid fix that will fall apart when the international economy can no longer support it?

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(1) Mill, John Stuart. "Principles of political economy with some of their applications to social philosophy."